With an empty-net aim towards the Winnipeg Jets final evening, Auston Matthews turned the primary participant to hit the 50-goal mark this season. The Maple Leafs’ centre was the main scorer final season as nicely, with 41 tallies in a condensed 52-game season. Had the 12 months prolonged to the total size of 82 video games, he seemingly would have shattered that milestone final 12 months as nicely.
In 2019-20, which was additionally shortened (although to various lengths across the 70-game mark), three forwards sport near that milestone: Alex Ovechkin (48), David Pastrnak (48), and Matthews (47).
Rewind to the final full season in 2018-19, there have been two gamers to web a minimum of 50 — Ovechkin and Draisaitl.
This 12 months, there’ll seemingly be greater than two forwards to hit that mark. Matthews is there, Draisaitl is one away, and Kreider’s simply 4 shy. There haven’t been three gamers to hit this marker in a single season since 2009-10.
Let’s take a better look.
With 50 objectives in 62 video games, Matthews is on tempo to attain 62 objectives in 77 video games. He’d be the primary ahead to web 60 since Steven Stamkos again in 2011-12. Although he’s missed time, he’s on the high in uncooked numbers and when factoring in ice time. Together with the perfect objectives charge, his anticipated aim era is on the high of the league as nicely.
We’ve analyzed whether or not the ahead’s scoring is sustainable fairly a number of instances this season, and there are encouraging indicators. There’s his shot quantity — 23.3 makes an attempt that rank sixth within the league in all conditions — and high quality, with over 59 per cent coming from the slot. Nobody shoots from that space of the ice at a excessive charge than Matthews’ 13.8 makes an attempt per 60. As concentrated as his pictures are to the house plate in entrance of the crease, it’s not all coming from the identical spot both. So there’s a bit much less predictability on the place he’ll shoot from.
Nobody creates scoring possibilities off the cycle at the next charge than the Maple Leafs’ ahead, plus he can generate high quality seems to be off the push. Then there’s the flexibility facet of his sport; he can beat goaltenders with each single shot and might combine it as much as problem opponents and maintain them guessing on which talent he’ll use from his toolbox.
What betters his probabilities of scoring is the pre-shot motion. Mitch Marner’s major passes have instantly preceded about 27 per cent of Matthews’ shot makes an attempt. Nobody’s higher at shifting the puck to the slot than the winger, and that simply provides one other component of hazard.
Between his shot high quality and what comes earlier than his makes an attempt, Matthews’ anticipated aim whole is 35.5. Earlier than accounting for capturing expertise, that may tempo out to 44 objectives throughout a full season which he’s already surpassed. Regardless of scoring above expectations, it doesn’t seem that his scoring is instantly going to dry up. His ending potential, on high of such a robust base of offensive era, could also be what retains him within the league lead.
If Draisaitl’s 49 objectives aren’t spectacular sufficient, the ahead’s help totals are one in need of matching that quantity. So he has a professional probability at two trophies at season’s finish: the Rocket Richard and the Artwork Ross.
However let’s concentrate on the previous.
Draisaitl’s shot creation culminates to an anticipated aim worth of 36.8 which leads the league. Like Matthews, he’s already surpassed the 82-game tempo it’s put him on. However the hole between the worth of his shot era and ending potential is lower than the opposite two gamers he’s between within the race.
Nevertheless, when factoring in minutes performed, his xG generate and scoring are each are barely slower paces than Matthews and Kreider, too. That might turn into an element down the stretch.
A key distinction between Draisaitl and the centre forward of him aim scoring is his capturing. The Oilers’ ahead doesn’t shoot the puck at almost the identical charge. In actual fact, his all scenario shot try charge of 16.2 per 60 ranks 79th within the league. And it’s not as if a ridiculously excessive proportion of these pictures are concentrated to the slot to make up for it comparatively.
Most of Draisaitl’s pictures come from the best facet of the ice. That offers the lefty a fantastic angle to shoot from, although — and it opens him up for one-timers which can be notably harmful on the facility play from him, the place he’s already web 20 objectives. What advantages him as nicely is who tends to set him up most. About 35 precent of his shot makes an attempt are arrange by a shot from Connor McDavid, one of many quickest and most evasive forwards within the league. As defenders watch him fly across the ice with the puck on his stick, his teammate has time and area to get in capturing place. Since he’s proven the propensity to fireside it rapidly after a cross, it stuns goaltenders. And that’s what helps elevate that anticipated aim era regardless of not capturing at as excessive of a tempo.
A number of months again once we final analyzed the Rocket Race, it was Kreider narrowly within the lead. Now he’s again in third, however nonetheless retaining tempo. Of the three skaters, he was the least anticipated to achieve these heights. Earlier than this season, his earlier highs all have been under 30.
That’s the place he’s stationed on the facility play, tipping and re-directing pictures previous the goaltenders for a league-leading 24 objectives on the benefit. He’s among the best in all scenario deflections, and second on the facility play with 7.14 makes an attempt per 60 that join on aim 75 per cent of the time. And nobody finishes that shot kind higher than him. What units him up for re-direct alternatives so usually is the Rangers’ high-volume energy play that units him as much as do his magic.
So what Kreider lacks in quantity, he could make up in high quality with about 56 per cent of his pictures coming from the slot in all conditions, and a league-leading charge of pictures from the inside slot.
What additionally helps is his major linemate, Mika Zibanejad, is additionally anticipated to shoot. This 12 months at 5-on-5, nonetheless, his objectives charge is decrease than years previous. The centre’s had some nifty set ups (with major shot assists on 30 per cent of Kreider’s makes an attempt), whether or not along with his passing at even power or capturing on the facility play that Kreider’s tipped in. However there’s a distinction between him because the scorer’s major helper in comparison with Marner and McDavid.
With all that in thoughts, Kreider’s scoring probably the most objectives above anticipated of the top-three. Perhaps that places a damper on his possibilities to achieve the 55 he’s on tempo for, which is behind what Draisaitl and Matthews are on observe for. His scoring charge, nonetheless, is forward of the previous’s as is his anticipated aim era — that works in his favor, seeing as the 2 have the identical variety of video games remaining. However can his ending potential push him forward?
It’s going to be powerful for anybody to make up the distinction and soar forward of Matthews, Draisaitl, or Kreider. However two gamers aren’t too far behind that there’s at all times an opportunity.
One in all them’s Ovechkin, whose one of many best aim scorers of all time that you may’t ever absolutely rely out.
The 36 12 months outdated received off to an excellent begin this season on the rating sheet, even with out his one-timer delivering as much as expectations. However his scoring did decelerate. Now he’s as much as 42 objectives in 66 video games that put him on tempo for 51 throughout a full season (which for him, at most, might be 80 video games). That’s a number of again from the tempo he was on in late January. Nonetheless, this could possibly be his first time again to that milestone since 2018-19 and his ninth time reaching the 50-goal mark.
Few gamers shoot as regularly as Ovechkin’s 26.1 makes an attempt per 60 in all conditions. Solely Nikolaj Ehlers and David Pastnrak do at the next clip. However the location of these pictures is essential to notice. Underneath 43 per cent of his pictures come from the slot, regardless that he’s had numerous success scoring from in shut this season. Fairly, so lots of his pictures are concentrated to ‘his workplace’ within the left circle, or additional outdoors. Everybody is aware of how efficient he could be from there, however capturing from additional out can provide defenders a greater probability to dam these makes an attempt or he can miss. Solely 49 per cent of his pictures truly join on aim.
The keys to Ovechkin’s success are shot quantity and ending potential. And in most seasons, that will get him very far. However this 12 months, it might not be coming at a frequent sufficient tempo to beat the skaters forward of him.
Rounding out the skaters with a minimum of 40 objectives this season is Connor of Winnipeg. Whereas Ovechkin leans to the left circle, the Jets’ winger shoots from the best fairly a bit as highlighted in crimson under.
The standard of his pictures mix for an anticipated aim whole of 33.8. That’s good for fifth within the league, behind Draisaitl, Matthews, McDavid, and Alex DeBrincat. It’s additionally solely 7.23 above expectations, which is a smaller hole than the 4 leaders. However when accounting for ice time, his anticipated aim charge slides again behind the three main scorers and solely strikes forward of Ovechkin’s. His precise aim charge pushes him even additional; it truly ranks twentieth within the league amongst forwards whereas all 4 of the aforementioned stars are within the top-10.
Proper now, he’s on tempo to attain 49 objectives and simply fall shy of the 50-goal mark. And there’s an excellent probability, contemplating his offensive era and capturing expertise, that he reaches, and even barely exceeds that. However the Jets have one sport remaining fewer than the Capitals, Rangers, and Oilers, and two lower than the Maple Leafs. And Connor’s tempo is already behind the remainder. So he’s in good firm, however in all probability received’t discover himself on the high this 12 months.